Thirteen elections, three altitudes
The same dataset read at national, county, and individual level — returns from 1976 to 2024, plus the ANES survey series underneath them. One story told three ways is also a test of whether a chart system composes.
Democratic minus Republican vote share by county. Scrub the timeline and watch the rural counties slide red while the large metros deepen blue — the diverging ramp is symmetric, so the asymmetry you see is in the country, not the colors.
County presidential returns, political-history/v1. Margin in percentage points; dem − rep margin, percentage points.
Share of counties at each margin, one ridge per presidential election, every county counted once whatever its size. The dot on each baseline is the national popular-vote margin; select an election to read it.
Select an election to read its counties.
Chart data · 13 rows
| Election | Counties | National margin | Median county | Counties won by 20+ points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,976 | 3,104 | D+2.1 | D+2.0 | 38% |
| 1,980 | 3,106 | R+9.7 | R+14.0 | 51% |
| 1,984 | 3,108 | R+18.2 | R+27.0 | 66% |
| 1,988 | 3,107 | R+7.7 | R+14.0 | 45% |
| 1,992 | 3,108 | D+5.6 | Even | 27% |
| 1,996 | 3,107 | D+8.5 | R+1.0 | 33% |
| 2,000 | 3,112 | D+0.5 | R+17.2 | 51% |
| 2,004 | 3,113 | R+2.5 | R+22.5 | 60% |
| 2,008 | 3,113 | D+7.3 | R+16.0 | 55% |
| 2,012 | 3,113 | D+3.9 | R+23.6 | 64% |
| 2,016 | 3,112 | D+2.1 | R+38.0 | 78% |
| 2,020 | 3,112 | D+4.5 | R+38.5 | 77% |
| 2,024 | 3,113 | R+1.5 | R+40.3 | 78% |
- Republican margin
- Democratic margin
County presidential returns, political-history/v1; national margins from Presidential election returns via political-history/v1
Democratic share of the two-party vote by education, 1976 against 2024. The lines literally cross: the most- and least-educated voters have traded places.
- More Democratic
- Less Democratic
ANES cumulative file via political-history/v1
Standardized OLS coefficients on the Democratic margin across 3,102 counties (R² = 0.59). College share and diversity pull blue; rural share pulls red.
political-history/v1 county regressions. OLS, predictors standardized (z-scored); HC1-robust SE; unweighted; Alaska excluded.