Showing the spread, not just the average
Every chart here exists because a summary statistic would hide the finding — a mean that conceals two separated camps, a median that conceals a state sitting far from the rest.
Each county's swing minus the national swing, in percentage points. If counties moved independently this would be wide; instead most sit within a few points of the national shift, cycle after cycle.
County presidential returns, 1972-2024. Per-pair histogram counts of (county swing - national swing), 2pp bins from -50 to +50, tails clipped into end bins.
Each dot is one state: the percentage-point change in prevalence per doubling of tract median income. The dark rule in each row is the median state, the grey rule is zero; on every measure but binge drinking, nearly every state sits left of it.
Within-state regressions of tract prevalence on log tract income, 294 state × measure fits.
Self-placement on a seven-point liberal–conservative scale, split by political knowledge. Among low-knowledge respondents the two parties' distributions sit almost on top of each other; among high-knowledge respondents they barely meet.
- Democrat
- Republican
ANES 2020. Knowledge measured by mean of available factual items per respondent (0-1): knows_house_majority, sees_party_diff, knows_house_speaker, knows_vp, knows_chief_justice; respondents valid on >=2 items; high-knowledge >=0.67, low-knowledge <=0.34.
Each row is the national distribution across all ZIP codes; the gold dot is this one. The wash runs better to worse across each row, the dotted rule is the US value and the solid rule the state's.
Health outcomes
CDC PLACES 2025 ZCTA estimates, with ACS and Area Deprivation Index covariates.
Every county in the country, drawn on canvas rather than as SVG — at three thousand marks the node-per-point approach the rest of this gallery uses starts to cost more than it returns. Dot area is proportional to county population, so a county of a million people covers four times the ink of one with 250,000; the smallest counties are held at a minimum visible size, and the key says where that starts. Sizing shows where people are, not a population-weighted estimate. The 31 counties with no 2020 direction on file are drawn in grey rather than dropped.
Data table — 50 of 3,142 points
| #1 | 38.1 | 11.5 | Voted Republican | 25,864 |
| #64 | 37.6 | 12.6 | Voted Republican | 8,543 |
| #127 | 38.8 | 12.2 | Voted Republican | 18,378 |
| #190 | 39.2 | 14.6 | Voted Republican | 10,733 |
| #253 | 37.8 | 12.5 | Voted Republican | 40,008 |
| #316 | 24.1 | 11.7 | Voted Democratic | 668,526 |
| #379 | 31.7 | 11.5 | Voted Republican | 5,537 |
| #442 | 33.0 | 11.0 | Voted Republican | 4,292 |
| #505 | 30.5 | 10.1 | Voted Democratic | 9,176 |
| #568 | 36.0 | 11.1 | Voted Republican | 147,313 |
| #631 | 33.1 | 10.8 | Voted Republican | 15,157 |
| #694 | 35.6 | 10.8 | Voted Republican | 29,107 |
| #757 | 28.0 | 9.7 | Voted Republican | 376,242 |
| #820 | 31.8 | 7.2 | Voted Republican | 49,653 |
| #883 | 39.6 | 13.3 | Voted Republican | 9,997 |
| #946 | 33.4 | 11.6 | Voted Republican | 56,567 |
| #1009 | 39.6 | 13.1 | Voted Republican | 27,391 |
| #1072 | 38.6 | 12.7 | Voted Republican | 5,641 |
| #1135 | 34.8 | 11.2 | Voted Republican | 8,334 |
| #1198 | 36.5 | 9.3 | Voted Republican | 8,346 |
| #1261 | 32.7 | 11.2 | Voted Republican | 73,340 |
| #1324 | 31.1 | 11.5 | Voted Republican | 12,716 |
| #1387 | 36.0 | 10.0 | Voted Republican | 155,134 |
| #1450 | 35.0 | 8.8 | Voted Republican | 2,239 |
| #1513 | 31.4 | 9.9 | Voted Republican | 24,148 |
| #1576 | 39.1 | 8.9 | Voted Republican | 15,226 |
| #1639 | 36.7 | 9.8 | Voted Republican | 7,615 |
| #1702 | 37.2 | 10.3 | Voted Republican | 20,007 |
| #1765 | 33.4 | 8.3 | Voted Republican | 379,856 |
| #1828 | 35.4 | 9.9 | Voted Republican | 22,921 |
| #1891 | 38.3 | 12.3 | Voted Republican | 53,385 |
| #1954 | 36.7 | 12.4 | Voted Republican | 7,052 |
| #2017 | 34.8 | 10.5 | Voted Democratic | 167,126 |
| #2080 | 30.6 | 10.7 | Voted Republican | 17,943 |
| #2143 | 43.1 | 18.1 | Voted Democratic | 56,830 |
| #2206 | 29.7 | 8.5 | Voted Republican | 21,862 |
| #2269 | 34.5 | 10.6 | Voted Republican | 9,009 |
| #2332 | 39.5 | 9.9 | Voted Republican | 5,694 |
| #2395 | 35.9 | 11.4 | Voted Republican | 294,229 |
| #2458 | 33.8 | 10.9 | Voted Republican | 182,155 |
| #2521 | 39.2 | 9.0 | Voted Republican | 31,536 |
| #2584 | 39.2 | 16.6 | Voted Democratic | 1,904 |
| #2647 | 32.3 | 10.3 | Voted Republican | 27,836 |
| #2710 | 34.8 | 11.1 | Voted Republican | 37,626 |
| #2773 | 30.5 | 9.2 | Voted Republican | 117,078 |
| #2836 | 38.5 | 13.3 | Voted Republican | 72,304 |
| #2899 | 32.0 | 9.9 | Voted Republican | 29,171 |
| #2962 | 35.2 | 9.8 | Voted Republican | 71,233 |
| #3025 | 34.3 | 9.8 | Voted Republican | 62,465 |
| #3088 | 36.0 | 12.1 | Voted Republican | 28,417 |
CDC PLACES model-based county estimates, age-adjusted prevalence; 2020 presidential direction from county returns.