Methods, Sources & the Caveat Ledger

First presidential election of Reconstruction. Texas, Mississippi, and Virginia had not been readmitted and did not vote.

Greeley (Liberal Republican, endorsed by the Democrats) died between the popular vote and the Electoral College; his 66 electors scattered, 63 of their votes were counted for other men, and 3 posthumous Greeley votes were rejected. Arkansas and Louisiana returns were thrown out.

County-sum caveat: the source undercounts the Greeley-coalition vote (~2.66M county-sum vs ~2.83M official) — post-mortem chaos, rejected AR/LA returns, and Straight-Out Democrat splinter lines. County-sum two-party Dem share runs ~1.6pp below the official share this year.

Disputed returns in FL, LA, SC, and OR were settled by the Electoral Commission; the Compromise of 1877 ended Reconstruction. Tilden won the popular vote by 3 points — the largest PV margin ever for an EC loser.

Closest national popular-vote margin of the 19th century (~9,500 votes).

First Democratic presidential win since 1856.

Harrison won the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

Weaver's Populists carried five Western states — the strongest third-party EV showing between 1860 and 1912. Cleveland's non-consecutive comeback.

The realigning 'System of 1896' election: Bryan's free-silver crusade against McKinley's front porch. Turnout among the highest ever recorded.

County-sum caveat: Bryan ran on both Democratic and Populist lines; fusion-line votes land in other_votes in some states, so the county file's dem_votes undercounts Bryan (~6.11M vs ~6.51M official). County-sum two-party Dem share runs ~1.7pp below official.

The 1896 rematch, decided the same way.

Roosevelt's landslide — the widest PV margin since the popular-vote era began, until 1920.

Bryan's third and final defeat.

The Republican split: Roosevelt's Bull Moose run beat Taft into third — the best third-party finish in U.S. history. Mean county 'other' share is 0.29 this year; two-party measures mislead — always show the third-party share for 1912.

'He kept us out of war.' California's 13 EV decided it by ~3,800 votes.

First election after the 19th Amendment — the eligible electorate roughly doubled. Harding's 60.3% remains the record PV share. Debs ran from federal prison.

La Follette carried Wisconsin and ran second across the West. Davis's 28.8% is the worst Democratic share ever.

Smith, the first Catholic nominee, cracked the urban North but lost five ex-Confederate states — the first crack in the Solid South.

The New Deal realignment begins: FDR flipped 282 electoral votes' worth of 1928 Hoover states.

FDR carried every state but Maine and Vermont — the biggest EV share since 1820.

The third term.

The wartime election; FDR's fourth win.

'Dewey Defeats Truman.' The Dixiecrat revolt: Thurmond carried four Deep South states — the Solid South's first open break.

Ike cracked the outer South (VA, TN, FL, TX).

One Alabama elector (W.F. Turner) defected from Stevenson to local judge Walter B. Jones.

First election for Alaska and Hawaii. Fifteen unpledged Southern electors (MS, AL) plus one Oklahoma defector voted for Harry F. Byrd. PV margin ~0.17 points — the closest of the 20th century.

Johnson's 61.1% is the record Democratic share. Goldwater carried the Deep South while losing 44 states — the racial realignment made visible.

Wallace carried five Southern states — the last third-party electoral votes won at the ballot box. The New Deal coalition broke.

Nixon's 49-state sweep. One Virginia elector defected to Libertarian John Hospers.

One Washington elector pledged to Ford voted for Reagan.

The Reagan realignment election.

Reagan carried 49 states; Mondale held only Minnesota and DC.

One West Virginia elector voted Bentsen for president. The last election where California went Republican.

Perot's 18.9% is the best third-party PV share since 1912 — with zero electoral votes. Two-party measures need the third-party caveat this year.

Decided by 537 votes in Florida and Bush v. Gore. One DC elector abstained (Gore pledged 267, cast 266).

One Minnesota elector voted for 'John Ewards' [sic] for president.

Seven faithless electors — the most defections since 1872 (pledged count 306–232). Clinton won the PV by 2.1 points. McMullin's 'other' surge is real in Utah/Idaho counties (other_share > 0.35 in Madison ID, Cache and Utah UT).

Highest turnout rate since 1900.

Trump's first PV plurality. County data this year switches to MEDSL geography: Alaska appears as 40 pseudo-county districts (02001–02040) and Kansas City MO is its own row ('2938000').