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The American Political Almanac
RECONSTRUCTION & THE GILDED AGETHE SYSTEM OF 1896THE NEW DEAL ORDERTHE LONG REALIGNMENTPOLARIZED ERA1868RRRRD1888RDRRR1908RDDRR1928RDDDD1948DRRDD1968RRDRR1988RDDRR2008DDR2020DR

The Nation Decides

Electoral votes, the popular vote, and how every state moved
✓ Won
Joe Biden
Democrat
Joe Biden
306
Electoral votes
51.3% · 81,268,908
President · The Polarized Era

2020

Biden def. Trump, 306–232

Also running: Jo Jorgensen (1.2%)

Donald Trump
Republican
Donald Trump
232
Electoral votes
46.8% · 74,216,146
Electoral college — 270 to win (538 electors)306 D · 232 R
Popular vote51.3% · 46.8% · other 1.9% · margin D+4.5

158,528,503 votes counted

Electoral map — one tile per state
R+40D+40third party won
The swing from last time
Change in each state’s margin since 2016 · ← toward Republicans · toward Democrats →

The Map Beneath the Map

Three thousand counties, and the demography of the divide

Every county that cast a ballot, shaded by its margin. Hover any county to read it; click to open its 156-year profile. Scrub the timeline above and the map redraws in place. Vote counts exist for all forty elections; the demographic lenses begin in 2000.

County margin

Drawing three thousand counties…

R+40D+40no returns
What predicts the county vote? · 2020

A map shows where; a regression shows how much. The Democratic margin is modelled on five county traits at once, each standardized — a coefficient reads as “points of margin per one standard deviation, holding the other four fixed.” Pick a trait to follow through all three views:

Across all counties, nationally
dot = effect on the Democratic margin per +1 SD · whisker = 95% CI · all five entered together
…and within each state, separately

each dot = a state (≥15 counties) · filled = significant (|t|≥2) · ┊ national · ← Rep · Dem →

Who Voted for Whom

The American electorate by income, education, faith and more

How each slice of the electorate split between the parties — by their own account. Weighted ANES self-reports from a national sample: they tilt slightly toward the winner and carry no county detail.

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Notes on this election

  • Highest turnout rate since 1900.