The cold mass at zero
How warmly do partisans feel about the other party, and how many now give it a literal zero?
Weighted share of partisans, leaners included, rating the opposing party in each band of the 0–100 feeling thermometer, in eight survey waves.
- Rated the other party at exactly 0°
- Rated it 1–100°
- Mean rating
Select a ridge to read its values: click or tap it, or focus the chart and use the arrow keys, then Enter.
Each ridge is one ANES wave: the weighted share of partisans, leaners included and pure independents excluded, who put the opposing party in each band of the 0–100 feeling thermometer. The first band is a literal zero. The rest are ten degrees wide and drawn as flat steps, because answers pile up on the rating card’s anchors (15, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 85) and a smooth curve between bands would invent detail. All ridges share one height scale. The dot is the weighted mean, placed proportionally within its band; its 95% interval is in the status line and the table. The 2020 and 2024 waves were largely self-administered online, a mode that draws more zeros, so part of the 2016–2020 jump may be mode rather than mood.
Out-party thermometer by wave · 8 rows
| Wave | Respondents | 0° (%) | 1–10° (%) | 11–20° (%) | 21–30° (%) | 31–40° (%) | 41–50° (%) | 51–60° (%) | 61–70° (%) | 71–80° (%) | 81–90° (%) | 91–100° (%) | Mean (°) | Lower 95% | Upper 95% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,978 | 1,724 | 5.39 | 0.41 | 3.42 | 7.89 | 16.07 | 35.61 | 15.14 | 11.83 | 0.93 | 2.96 | 0.35 | 48 | 47.12 | 48.87 |
| 1,984 | 1,883 | 7.91 | 0.32 | 7.01 | 9.19 | 16.14 | 25.49 | 17.9 | 10.3 | 0.48 | 4.36 | 0.9 | 45.93 | 44.95 | 46.9 |
| 1,992 | 2,101 | 8.29 | 0.82 | 9.07 | 13.45 | 20.55 | 21.94 | 14.8 | 6.89 | 1.05 | 2.68 | 0.46 | 41.84 | 40.94 | 42.74 |
| 2,000 | 1,528 | 8.37 | 2.91 | 6.68 | 12.68 | 19 | 26.83 | 12.41 | 6.58 | 1.5 | 2.22 | 0.82 | 41.59 | 40.41 | 42.78 |
| 2,008 | 1,983 | 14.82 | 0.93 | 14.77 | 15.81 | 16.78 | 21.37 | 9.31 | 4.53 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 34.68 | 33.53 | 35.83 |
| 2,016 | 3,619 | 22.22 | 6.95 | 19.25 | 13.91 | 13.75 | 13.35 | 5.82 | 3.11 | 0.36 | 0.83 | 0.47 | 26.07 | 25.19 | 26.95 |
| 2,020 | 7,201 | 39.99 | 4.01 | 19.55 | 12.23 | 8.67 | 9.31 | 3.3 | 1.73 | 0.21 | 0.65 | 0.36 | 19.27 | 18.59 | 19.95 |
| 2,024 | 5,083 | 33.23 | 5.95 | 21.36 | 14.32 | 9.3 | 9.31 | 3.58 | 1.82 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.23 | 20.63 | 19.8 | 21.46 |
American National Election Studies cumulative file 1948–2024 · partisans including leaners, weighted
Reading notes
The 2020 and 2024 waves were largely self-administered online, a mode that draws more zero ratings, so part of the 2016–2020 jump may be mode rather than mood. Bands are ten degrees wide except the literal zero, and answers heap on the rating card’s anchors.
Source & method
American National Election Studies cumulative file 1948–2024 · partisans including leaners, weighted
Kept the analysis file's out-party feeling-thermometer distribution for its eight ANES waves (1978, 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008, 2016, 2020, 2024): the weighted percentage of partisans (leaners included) in eleven response bands, where the first band is a literal 0 and the rest are 10° wide (1–10 … 91–100), with each wave's unweighted n. Kept, per wave, the share at exactly 0° and the share above 50° from the analysis file's thermometer series. The mean out-party rating and its 95% interval come from the book chapter's `asym` series (group = out), which re-runs the same weighted estimator on the same universe; the capture checks that its means match the analysis file's to 0.05° and its n exactly, so the two files describe one sample. The chapter's decade-pooled 5° ridges were checked and not used: they pool waves and resolve the thermometer card's heaping at 15/30/40/50/60/70/85° into a comb; the ten-degree bands keep eight separate waves. Shares rounded to 0.01 points.
Capture provenance
- box:Politics / analysis/out-party-hate-not-in-party-love/data.json
- Modified 2026-06-10 · SHA-256 b6728165166cd46517563ed84864145e9d10c4af50e270a3a22955bc92547c22
- box:Politics / book2/chapters/learning-to-despise/data.json
- Modified 2026-07-01 · SHA-256 4c0a595856ddff4697623369238320b78fc204223e598cba11682bfa1aa10022
- Captured
- 2026-09-12
- Fixture SHA-256
- e5f7e20c1d1196d985863bb7eaaf4cb242932aa1f49a10b2cdb17f034fe2ae6e
- Reuse note
- Aggregates of the American National Election Studies cumulative data file 1948–2024 (weighted with VCF0009z). ANES data are free to use with registration; cite the American National Election Studies (electionstudies.org).
