Sympathy broke the week of the murder
Did racial sympathy really jump when George Floyd was killed, or would a break appear wherever the cut was placed?
Weekly racial-sympathy index, in standard deviations from the panel mean, with 95% intervals and the interrupted-time-series fit at 25 May 2020. Drag the cut along the weeks: the panel below re-reads the break at every candidate Monday, and it peaks at the murder.
The same model with the cut moved to each Monday, March–August 2020 (pooled sample)
Cut at May 25, 2020 (the murder): break +0.11 SD (95% CI +0.06 to +0.16) in the pooled sample. The largest, +0.11 SD, is at Jun 1, 2020.
Each weekly point is the weighted mean of a two-item racial-sympathy index — the ANES “try harder” and “generations of slavery” battery, signed so higher is more sympathetic — standardized within Nationscape, so 0 is the panel’s pooled mean and one unit is one standard deviation. Bands are 95% intervals; a week needs at least 250 respondents, and the source has no estimate for the week of 4 January 2021, so the lines break there. The straight segments are the chapter’s interrupted-time-series fit (sympathy ~ t + post + t × post, weighted, week-clustered errors, 2 February – 30 August 2020). The lower panel refits that model with the cut moved to each Monday; a real shock should give its largest break at its own date, not at an arbitrary one. The pre-period trend is +0.0028 SD a week. Nationscape is an online, weighted nonprobability panel: read the timing, not the level. The vertical scale stays put as series are toggled, so a break keeps its size on screen.
The break at May 25, group by group
The same model estimated within each group, in SD units with week-clustered 95% intervals. Groups need at least 5,000 respondents in the window. Positive nearly everywhere; largest among Democrats and Black respondents, and indistinguishable from zero among Republicans.
Party
Race of respondent
Education
Weekly estimates · 82 rows
| Week of | Series | Index (SD) | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-07-15 | Everyone | -0.12 | -0.17 | -0.07 | 4,913 |
| 2019-07-22 | Everyone | -0.07 | -0.11 | -0.02 | 6,208 |
| 2019-07-29 | Everyone | -0.04 | -0.09 | 0 | 6,432 |
| 2019-08-05 | Everyone | -0.07 | -0.12 | -0.03 | 5,655 |
| 2019-08-12 | Everyone | -0.03 | -0.08 | 0.01 | 5,543 |
| 2019-08-19 | Everyone | -0.06 | -0.1 | -0.02 | 7,640 |
| 2019-08-26 | Everyone | -0.07 | -0.11 | -0.02 | 5,503 |
| 2019-09-02 | Everyone | -0.1 | -0.14 | -0.06 | 5,833 |
| 2019-09-09 | Everyone | -0.05 | -0.09 | 0 | 5,558 |
| 2019-09-16 | Everyone | -0.05 | -0.1 | -0.01 | 6,027 |
| 2019-09-23 | Everyone | -0.07 | -0.12 | -0.03 | 5,924 |
| 2019-09-30 | Everyone | -0.04 | -0.08 | -0.01 | 8,963 |
| 2019-10-07 | Everyone | -0.08 | -0.13 | -0.03 | 4,778 |
| 2019-10-14 | Everyone | -0.05 | -0.1 | 0 | 3,982 |
| 2019-10-21 | Everyone | -0.1 | -0.14 | -0.06 | 6,745 |
| 2019-10-28 | Everyone | -0.04 | -0.08 | 0.01 | 7,178 |
| 2019-11-04 | Everyone | -0 | -0.04 | 0.04 | 5,750 |
| 2019-11-11 | Everyone | -0.07 | -0.11 | -0.03 | 7,346 |
| 2019-11-18 | Everyone | -0.13 | -0.18 | -0.07 | 3,600 |
| 2019-11-25 | Everyone | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0.01 | 7,755 |
Break at each candidate cut (pooled sample) · 23 rows
| Cut at | Break (SD) | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-02 | 0.01 | -0.03 | 0.04 | 197,386 |
| 2020-03-09 | -0 | -0.04 | 0.03 | 197,386 |
| 2020-03-16 | 0 | -0.03 | 0.03 | 197,386 |
| 2020-03-23 | -0.01 | -0.04 | 0.02 | 197,386 |
| 2020-03-30 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 0.06 | 197,386 |
| 2020-04-06 | 0.04 | -0 | 0.07 | 197,386 |
| 2020-04-13 | 0.03 | -0.02 | 0.08 | 197,386 |
| 2020-04-20 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 197,386 |
| 2020-04-27 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 197,386 |
| 2020-05-04 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 197,386 |
| 2020-05-11 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 197,386 |
| 2020-05-18 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 197,386 |
| 2020-05-25 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 197,386 |
| 2020-06-01 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 197,386 |
| 2020-06-08 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 197,386 |
| 2020-06-15 | 0.02 | -0.04 | 0.08 | 197,386 |
| 2020-06-22 | -0.02 | -0.08 | 0.04 | 197,386 |
| 2020-06-29 | -0.04 | -0.1 | 0.02 | 197,386 |
| 2020-07-06 | -0.07 | -0.13 | -0.01 | 197,386 |
| 2020-07-13 | -0.05 | -0.12 | 0.01 | 197,386 |
Break at May 25 by group · 12 rows
| Lens | Group | Break (SD) | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| education | College | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.2 | 43,401 |
| education | HS or less | 0.1 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 65,627 |
| education | Postgrad | 0.16 | 0.1 | 0.22 | 27,471 |
| education | Some college | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 60,887 |
| party | Democrats | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 89,718 |
| party | Independents | 0.06 | -0.01 | 0.13 | 30,059 |
| party | Republicans | 0.04 | -0.01 | 0.1 | 77,451 |
| race | Asian | 0.12 | -0 | 0.23 | 9,057 |
| race | Black | 0.2 | 0.13 | 0.28 | 21,473 |
| race | Hispanic | 0.04 | -0.05 | 0.14 | 29,980 |
| race | Other | 0.11 | -0.04 | 0.26 | 6,437 |
| race | White | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 130,439 |
Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape · weighted weekly waves, July 2019 – February 2021 · The Public Mind, “The Floyd Inflection”
Reading notes
Nationscape is an online, weighted nonprobability panel, so read the timing of the break rather than its level. The index is standardized within Nationscape (SD units). Placebo cuts exist for the pooled sample only; party breaks are fitted at the true cut. The model dates the change to within a week but cannot separate the video, the protests and elite cues.
Source & method
Kept the chapter's weekly weighted means of its racial-sympathy index (two-item ANES battery, standardized within Nationscape: SD units, 0 = pooled panel mean) for everyone, Democrats and Republicans, with 95% intervals and unweighted n; the 23 placebo-cut level breaks (pooled sample only) with week-clustered 95% intervals; the six fitted ITS segments at the true cut (2020-05-25); the per-series breaks at the true cut from the chapter summary; and the chapter's 12 subgroup breaks (party, race, education). Derived: the week of 2021-01-04, absent from the source in every series, is written as an explicit null row so the line breaks instead of bridging it. conf_low/conf_high renamed lo/hi; values kept at the source's four decimals. Dropped: the ANES/GSS panel dumbbells and decay windows (other figures). The companion analysis file's hetero groups were not used: they measure a different four-item composite, so mixing them in would put two estimands on one axis.
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- Weighted aggregates only (weekly cells of at least 250 respondents). Underlying data: Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape (Tausanovitch & Vavreck, Democracy Fund Voter Study Group), an online nonprobability panel weighted to population benchmarks — cite it with the chapter. The Voter Study Group's terms of use are not restated in the Box files; confirm them before publication.
