The map remembers, upside down
Does the South’s 1872 county map still predict how its counties vote?
Two-party Democratic share of the presidential vote in the eleven ex-Confederate states, three elections drawn on the same modern county boundaries. Point at a county to read it in all three.
Three counties, forty elections
Hover a line or choose a county to find it on all three maps. The vertical rules and dots mark the three years the maps show; the midline is an even split.
How to read the maps. Each panel is the county two-party Democratic share of the presidential vote in the eleven ex-Confederate states: AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX VA. All three are drawn on today's county boundaries and fitted to one extent, so a county sits in the same place in each; pointing at one outlines it in all three. A historical return is drawn where its county's FIPS code matches a modern county. Grey counties had no return that year — many did not exist yet in 1872 — and the article notes eight historical counties per year with no modern match, which are not drawn.
Reading the middle panel. Around 1900 the Deep South's returns describe a largely whites-only electorate after the disenfranchising constitutions; its near-unanimous “Democratic” shares measure who was allowed to vote as much as how they voted. In some mid-century state-years the “Democratic” column is the state party's elector slate rather than the national nominee (Alabama 1948 and 1964); Wallace's and Thurmond's votes fall outside the two-party share.
What it shows, and doesn't. Across the 863 counties matched in both years, the 1872 and 2024 shares correlate at r = -0.43 — the Reconstruction map predicts today's, inverted. County returns describe places, not people. Coahoma County has no 1868 return, so its line starts in 1872.
Archetype counties, 1868–2024 (%) · 119 rows
| County | Year | Democratic two-party share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,868 | 20 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,872 | 21.5 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,876 | 29 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,880 | 61.8 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,884 | 59.9 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,888 | 71.7 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,892 | 87.7 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,896 | 88.6 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,900 | 96.7 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,904 | 97.6 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,908 | 98.1 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,912 | 98.9 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,916 | 98.6 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,920 | 97.2 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,924 | 97.5 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,928 | 73 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,932 | 97 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,936 | 98.5 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,940 | 95.2 |
| Dallas Co., Ala. (Selma) | 1,944 | 95.1 |
Algara & Amlani county presidential returns (Harvard Dataverse); MIT Election Data + Science Lab (2024)
Reading notes
Historical returns are drawn on modern county boundaries by FIPS match, and Jim Crow–era “Democratic” shares describe a largely whites-only electorate. County returns describe places, not people.
Source & method
Kept the three county maps (1872, 1900, 2024: county FIPS -> two-party Democratic share of the presidential vote, 0–1, as published to 3 decimals), the three archetype counties' full series (1868–2024; Coahoma County has no 1868 return, so its series starts in 1872), the eleven state FIPS codes that define the South, and the published correlations. Dropped the 863-county scatter (1872 vs 2024 by Black population share) and the South's share of the national vote, which this figure does not draw. Nothing is derived. A county with no return in a year is absent from that year's map — not zero; the article reports eight historical counties per year (1872, 1900) with no modern FIPS match, which the payload leaves out. Geometry is not in this fixture: the figure joins these FIPS codes to the site's us-atlas counties (public/geo).
Capture provenance
- box:Politics / analysis/the-map-remembers/data.json
- Modified 2026-07-12 · SHA-256 a58ec11435b3bffda08a1fa91d6ca9af5994a14f20e8a2fb76a9130a1b8b6fb1
- Captured
- 2026-09-12
- Fixture SHA-256
- 2c770c5dedc83060082ef5b23fb4d52ddfeb00cb45d4b3fc283bd52fc6b57eb1
- Reuse note
- County presidential returns 1868–2020: Algara & Amlani county-level election returns, Harvard Dataverse, doi:10.7910/DVN/DGUMFI (reuse terms per the Dataverse record). 2024: MIT Election Data + Science Lab county presidential returns (Harvard Dataverse). Two-party shares and archetype series computed by the book's build (analysis/the-map-remembers/build_data.py). County boundaries: us-atlas (US Census Bureau cartographic boundaries, public domain).
