Outnumbered, and defecting
How much more often do partisans vote for the other party when their county leans against them — and how many people live where that effect is steepest?
Share voting for the other party’s presidential candidate by the partisan lean of the respondent’s county, over how many respondents live at each lean. Switch the axis to the respondent’s own party and the two curves lie almost on top of each other.
- Democrats
- Republicans
Voted for the other party's presidential candidate
Respondents in each bin · Democrats above the line, Republicans below
Hover, tap or arrow through the bins to read each rate against the observations behind it.
Negative values are counties that lean toward the other party. Laid on this axis the two parties' curves nearly coincide: defection runs from about 2–3% where a respondent's own party dominates to about 16% where the other party does. The steepest points rest on the thinnest bins, as the counts beneath show. Intervals, when shown, assume simple random sampling and understate a weighted survey's uncertainty.
Chart data · 24 rows
| Party | County margin, D − R (pp) | Crossover (%) | Respondents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -65.6 | 15.5 | 1,707 |
| Democrats | -48.4 | 10.9 | 8,561 |
| Democrats | -31.9 | 9.2 | 12,272 |
| Democrats | -19.8 | 7.2 | 13,551 |
| Democrats | -10.1 | 6.7 | 15,394 |
| Democrats | -2.4 | 6.7 | 9,731 |
| Democrats | 2.3 | 6.2 | 10,964 |
| Democrats | 9.9 | 5.1 | 28,119 |
| Democrats | 19.7 | 4.5 | 24,068 |
| Democrats | 32.1 | 4.1 | 21,488 |
| Democrats | 48.5 | 3.1 | 26,072 |
| Democrats | 70.9 | 3.4 | 11,742 |
| Republicans | -67 | 2.1 | 4,419 |
| Republicans | -48.8 | 2.9 | 15,231 |
| Republicans | -32.3 | 3.5 | 16,870 |
| Republicans | -20 | 4.2 | 15,418 |
| Republicans | -10.2 | 4.8 | 15,141 |
| Republicans | -2.4 | 6.1 | 7,918 |
| Republicans | 2.3 | 6.6 | 8,530 |
| Republicans | 9.8 | 6.6 | 18,805 |
Cooperative Election Study (CES/CCES) cumulative file, 2008–2024 · voting-almanac aggregates
Reading notes
Rates pool every 2008–2024 wave and classify counties by their presidential winner. The most extreme rates sit in the thinnest bins. The optional intervals assume simple random sampling and understate a weighted survey’s uncertainty.
Source & method
Cooperative Election Study (CES/CCES) cumulative file, 2008–2024 · voting-almanac aggregates
Existing CTZN Viz reference fixture: 24-crossover.json. This example reuses the captured values; no fresh source retrieval is implied.
