The cost of living outnumbered
Does the extra defection among a party’s local minority hold up election after election?
Each party’s local minority against its aligned partisans, one panel per party on one scale. The gap is the cost of living outnumbered — there in every election for both parties.
- Local minority
- Aligned
Democrats
Republicans
Hover, tap or arrow through the years to compare every panel's gap at once.
Solid: partisans in counties the other party carried. Dashed: partisans in counties their own party carried. The shaded gap is the extra defection that comes with living outnumbered. It appears in every election for both parties, though for Democrats it has nearly closed since 2020. n is the number of respondents in the cell that year.
Chart data · 10 rows
| Party | Year | Local minority (%) | Local minority n | Aligned (%) | Aligned n | Gap (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 2,008 | 12.9 | 2,860 | 5.9 | 5,736 | 7 |
| Democrats | 2,012 | 9.1 | 4,805 | 5 | 9,075 | 4.1 |
| Democrats | 2,016 | 11.9 | 5,973 | 6.2 | 11,024 | 5.7 |
| Democrats | 2,020 | 5.5 | 5,714 | 3.2 | 12,469 | 2.3 |
| Democrats | 2,024 | 4.9 | 6,918 | 4 | 9,984 | 0.9 |
| Republicans | 2,008 | 8.2 | 4,109 | 4.7 | 4,277 | 3.5 |
| Republicans | 2,012 | 6 | 5,134 | 3.4 | 6,465 | 2.5 |
| Republicans | 2,016 | 9.6 | 4,652 | 4.4 | 6,469 | 5.1 |
| Republicans | 2,020 | 8.1 | 5,307 | 3.6 | 6,657 | 4.5 |
| Republicans | 2,024 | 5.1 | 4,197 | 2.7 | 8,316 | 2.4 |
Cooperative Election Study (CES/CCES), presidential-year waves 2008–2024 · voting-almanac aggregates
Reading notes
Each point is one presidential-year wave, with cells defined by the county’s presidential winner. The gap is descriptive, not a causal effect of place: who moves where, and why, feeds it too.
Source & method
Cooperative Election Study (CES/CCES), presidential-year waves 2008–2024 · voting-almanac aggregates
Existing CTZN Viz reference fixture: 24-crossover.json. This example reuses the captured values; no fresh source retrieval is implied.
