Half the deaths, a sliver of the map
What share of people account for half of gun homicide deaths, nationally and within big cities?
Cumulative share of gun homicide deaths against cumulative share of people, neighbourhood clusters ranked from the highest rate to the lowest — nationally and within eight large jurisdictions. The diagonal is an even spread.
United States: the first 25% of people, in the highest-rate neighbourhood clusters, account for 76.8% of gun homicide deaths.
The unit is the CDC’s neighbourhood cluster: firearm mortality is published only for aggregates of about five census tracts, built to reach reportable death counts, so true block-level concentration is higher than shown. Clusters are ranked from the highest firearm homicide rate (model-smoothed, not age-adjusted, 2022–2024 average) to the lowest; deaths are rate × ACS population. City curves are within each county or county-equivalent city, so they depend on where the boundary falls: Baltimore and St. Louis exclude their suburbs and look less concentrated than Cook or Wayne. The half-share counts whole clusters from the top until half of deaths are covered. With St. Louis’s 19 clusters the one that crosses the line carries the total to 62%, which is why its dot sits well above the halfway mark. Values between the plotted vertices, including the reader, are straight-line interpolations.
Half-shares and the reader · 9 rows
| Area | People holding half of deaths (%) | Deaths held by the first 25% of people (%) | Deaths a year | Neighbourhood clusters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 9.5 | 76.8 | — | — |
| Chicago (Cook Co.) | 10.9 | 75.5 | 625 | 312 |
| Detroit (Wayne Co.) | 16.8 | 66.6 | 216 | 105 |
| Los Angeles Co. | 18.2 | 61.6 | 276 | 600 |
| Columbus (Franklin Co.) | 22.6 | 55 | 95 | 77 |
| Philadelphia | 23 | 54.6 | 289 | 91 |
| Houston (Harris Co.) | 25.1 | 50.3 | 343 | 284 |
| St. Louis City | 26.5 | 59.5 | 104 | 19 |
| Baltimore City | 28.4 | 47.1 | 154 | 37 |
Curve vertices · 683 rows
| Area | People, cumulative (%) | Gun homicide deaths, cumulative (%) |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 0 | 0 |
| United States | 0.83 | 11.97 |
| United States | 1.65 | 18.9 |
| United States | 2.48 | 24.12 |
| United States | 3.34 | 28.66 |
| United States | 4.18 | 32.5 |
| United States | 5.01 | 35.9 |
| United States | 5.88 | 39.15 |
| United States | 6.75 | 42.12 |
| United States | 7.61 | 44.85 |
| United States | 8.47 | 47.35 |
| United States | 9.34 | 49.72 |
| United States | 10.22 | 51.97 |
| United States | 11.12 | 54.15 |
| United States | 11.98 | 56.1 |
| United States | 12.82 | 57.92 |
| United States | 13.65 | 59.63 |
| United States | 14.5 | 61.29 |
| United States | 15.33 | 62.83 |
| United States | 16.21 | 64.39 |
CDC tract-level firearm mortality (multi-tract aggregates), 2022–2024 average · ACS population
Reading notes
Clusters of about five tracts are the finest unit the source publishes, so true concentration is higher. City curves depend on where each county boundary falls, and half-shares count whole clusters. Connecticut and New York City are missing.
Source & method
CDC tract-level firearm mortality (multi-tract aggregates), 2022–2024 average · ACS population
Kept the national concentration curve of firearm homicide deaths and the within-county curves for eight large jurisdictions (Chicago/Cook, Detroit/Wayne, Los Angeles, Columbus/Franklin, Philadelphia, Houston/Harris, St. Louis City, Baltimore City), each as cumulative [share of population, share of deaths] vertices over CDC neighbourhood clusters ranked from the highest firearm homicide rate to the lowest, 2022–2024 average. Converted fractions to percent at two decimals and removed repeated vertices. Kept each curve's supplied half-share, deaths per year and cluster count. The source downsampled its curves (Chicago: 80 vertices for 312 clusters) but computed half-shares at full resolution by counting whole clusters until deaths reach one half; the capture checks that every half-share falls between the curve's last vertex below 50% and its first vertex at or above it. Dropped the Chicago tract map values and the decile overlap table, which belong to other figures.
Capture provenance
- box:birth_death / articles/_build/data/s8_concentration.json
- Modified 2026-06-12 · SHA-256 c15defbff5bf37915186d55be1915a4ca6136a13bb00f6bef06177ecc7c5df48
- Captured
- 2026-09-12
- Fixture SHA-256
- e41dab11524881e4bd9f0130de623fe657f2b0d44bfb1f99542b465b0f9028fc
- Reuse note
- Derived from CDC tract-level firearm mortality aggregates and ACS population estimates, US federal public-domain data. Connecticut and New York City are missing from the source file, so the national curve excludes them.
