Where the money and the vote disagree

Every county by its 2020 presidential vote (Democratic / Republican) and its reliable-donor pool’s lean (left / right). The two saturated colors are the counties whose donors contradict their voters.

Dem vote · left donors (aligned) Dem vote · right donors (Black Belt) Rep vote · right donors (aligned) Rep vote · left donors
County color is the joint of 2020 two-party presidential vote and the sign of the county-mean reliable-donor CFscore. Counties with fewer than 25 reliable donors are suppressed. Source: Stanford DIME v4.0 × county presidential returns.

Donor lean against the vote, colored by race

Each county: 2020 Democratic vote share (horizontal) vs. mean reliable-donor CFscore (vertical, up = more conservative). Darker points are more heavily Black. The upper-right corner — Democratic counties with conservative donors — is the Black Belt.

Takeaway: the cloud slopes down (Democratic counties have left donors) but a dark plume floats up into the Democratic-vote / conservative-donor corner — the most heavily Black counties.

One point per county (≥25 reliable donors); color is the county’s non-Hispanic Black population share. Source: DIME v4.0 × county returns & demographics.