A three-point gap became a fifty-point gap

Weighted share of each party (identifiers including leaners) saying abortion should “always be allowed,” 1980–2024. Shaded bands mark presidential terms.

Democrats (incl. leaners) Republicans (incl. leaners) Dem president Rep president

Takeaway: the two lines start almost touching in the 1980s and fan apart into a gulf, with the Democratic share climbing and the Republican share drifting down.

The gap on “always legal” widened from +3.5 points pooled across 1980–1990 to +52.3 points in 2024. The narrow, depressed readings in 2008 reflect a wave in which barely half the sample was asked the item; the gap that year (+22 points) sits below trend and is treated as an outlier, not a reversal. Source: ANES Cumulative File, weighted; respondents answering the abortion item, n = 1,031–7,900 per year.

The cross-pressured were squeezed toward zero

Weighted share of Democrats who say abortion should never be permitted (“pro-life Democrats,” filled) and of Republicans who say it should always be allowed (“pro-choice Republicans,” line), 1980–2024.

Takeaway: the filled band of pro-life Democrats melts from one-in-eight toward one-in-seventy, while pro-choice Republicans thin more gently — the overlap that once linked the parties is closing.

“Pro-life Democrats” fell from 12.4 percent in 1980 to 1.4 in 2024; “pro-choice Republicans” from 33.8 to 21.4. Source: ANES, weighted.

Abortion went from telling you nothing about a vote to telling you almost everything

Weighted correlation between abortion position and a Democratic presidential vote, presidential-election years, 1980–2024.

Takeaway: the correlation climbs steadily off the zero line, from no relationship in 1980 to a strong one by 2024.

Pearson correlation of the four-category abortion scale with a Democratic presidential vote, weighted; presidential years only. Source: ANES. n = 754–5,977 per election.