The cross-pressured partisan, 1972–2024

Share of placed partisans (leaners included) whose ideology contradicts their party. Hover for yearly detail.

Shaded band: combined cross-pressured share. Inset: weighted correlation between 7-point party ID and 7-point ideology. ANES CDF, full-sample weights; denominator excludes partisans who decline to place themselves on the scale.

Every cohort fell — that’s conversion, not replacement

Cross-pressured share of placed partisans by birth cohort, pooled by decade. Hover or tap a line to follow one cohort; the dashed line shows where the 2020s would sit if every cohort had kept its 1970s rate.

Decade × cohort cells shown only when N ≥ 100; the “2020s” pools the 2020 and 2024 waves. Counterfactual: 2020s cohort composition at frozen 1970s cohort rates, with cohorts unobserved in the 1970s assigned the 1970s cohort-average entry rate (18.5%).

Sorting diffused down the education ladder

Cross-pressured share of placed partisans by education, pooled by decade. Hover the dots for cell sizes.

Hollow dots mark thin cells (N < 100): grade-school partisans number 91 in the 2000s and 99 in the 2010s — read those two points loosely. All panels share the same scale; the dotted reference line in each panel is the College+ trajectory.

Conservative Democrats: the South converges on everyone else

Share of placed conservative partisans identifying as Democrats (leaners included), by decade. Hover for detail.

South defined by the ANES region flag (VCF0113). ANES geography is state-level; no sub-state claims are made.