Weighted share saying "a great deal" of confidence (top of a three-point scale). Click or tap any panel to expand it. Dashed line marks the 2021 switch to mixed-mode interviewing.
Each small panel plots the same two party lines, 1973–2024, on a shared 0–80% scale. The expanded chart adds annotations: the 2008 science crossover, the Dobbs decision for the Supreme Court, and the 2021 survey-mode change everywhere.
Every institution's party gap, then and now
Democratic minus Republican "great deal" share, pooled 1973–80 vs. pooled 2022–24. Blue means Democrats more confident; red means Republicans more confident. Hover for values.
Sorted by the size of the move. Science made the longest journey toward Democrats; the Supreme Court made the longest journey toward Republicans — almost all of it after 2021.
The Supreme Court: fifty years of consensus, then Dobbs
Weighted "great deal" share by party, 1973–2024. The 2022 GSS was fielded mostly after the Dobbs decision (June 2022). Hover for values.
DemocratsRepublicans2021 mode change
Democratic confidence fell from 24.9% in 2021 to 8.3% in 2022 and was still just 10.1% in 2024; Republicans moved from 30.6% to 26.8% over the same wave.