Which cleavage organizes how Americans feel about social groups

Share of the explained variance in non-political feeling thermometers attributable to each cleavage, by year. The party band swells; race recedes.

Read it as: in the 1960s and 70s, race accounted for the largest slice of explainable group feeling; party was a sliver. The bands trade places around 2000. Heights are shares of the four-cleavage total, not absolute η². Source: ANES Cumulative File, weighted; common-sample η² on respondents valid for all four cleavages.

Thirteen groups, sorted into party's column

Each panel: the share of feeling explained by party (gold) versus race (blue) over time. Border color marks the dominant cleavage in the latest year. Tap to expand.

Police feeling is best explained by party from 1992 on; feeling toward illegal immigrants crosses into party's column by 2012. By 2024, party is the dominant cleavage for 12 of the 13 groups, up from 2 of 6 in 1972. Source: ANES, weighted.