Weighted mean feeling thermometer (0–100) among partisans, leaners included · ANES 1978–2024 · hover or tap for values
How to read it: 50 is the thermometer's neutral point. The olive line (own party) never strays far from the low seventies; the sienna line (opposing party) falls below freezing. The shaded wedge is the in/out gap.
Where partisans put the other party, 1978 → 2024
Weighted share of partisans in each out-party thermometer bin · the leftmost bar is literal zero · hover for shares
The spike at zero. Each row is one survey year; bars show the weighted share of partisans in each thermometer bin. The distribution slides left for decades, then piles up against the wall.
Decomposing the collapse, 1980 → 2024
Shift-share: how much of the out-party thermometer decline is feelings changing within strength groups vs. the mix of partisans changing · hover the segments
Within, not between. Applying 2024 within-group means to the 1980 composition explains 23.7 of the 26.0-point drop; changing only the composition explains 0.9 points. Strength groups: strong / weak / leaning, ANES 7-point party ID.
Who thawed, 2020 → 2024
Change in weighted out-party thermometer by subgroup · dots show 2020 and 2024 levels · hover for detail
The edges softened; the core didn't. The thaw came from Republicans, weaker identifiers, and the politically disengaged. Strong partisans were flat to the decimal.
Parties vs. people: the 2024 divergence
Weighted thermometer toward the opposing party (1978–2024) vs. the opposing presidential candidate (1968–2024) · toggle to the share rating the out-candidate at zero · hover for values
Institutional hatred plateaued; personal hatred didn't. After 2020 the out-party line ticks up while the out-candidate line keeps falling and the zero-share keeps climbing.