Each county's 2016→24 margin shift was predicted from its BA share alone (vote-weighted). The map colors what's left over: brown counties moved right of their education prediction, teal counties moved left of it. Hover any county for details.
Residuals from a vote-weighted regression of the county-level 2016→24 two-party margin shift on the share of adults holding a bachelor's degree. Gray counties lack demographic data (Connecticut's redrawn planning regions and a handful of others) and are excluded from the model; Alaska is omitted throughout. The color scale is clamped at its ends — the most extreme counties exceed it. Geometry: U.S. Atlas (Albers).
Education pulls counties left. Income, net of education, pulls them right.
Coefficients from a vote-weighted regression of county two-party margin on standardized BA share and standardized median household income, per presidential cycle. Whiskers are 95 percent confidence intervals (HC-robust).
Margin = Democratic minus Republican share of the two-party vote, in percentage points. Both predictors standardized (vote-weighted) within each cycle's sample of 3,102–3,112 counties. Income is median household income in real 2024 dollars.
The jaws opened from 2012 to 2016 — and stopped
Vote-weighted two-party margin in the top and bottom deciles of county BA share, with the gap labeled. Deciles re-cut each cycle.
Positive values are more Democratic. Deciles cut on unweighted county counts; margins are vote-weighted means within each decile. 3,103–3,112 counties per cycle.
After 2016, education stopped predicting the shift — ethnicity took over
Each circle is a county, sized by 2024 two-party votes, placed by BA share (x) and 2016→24 margin shift (y), and colored by Hispanic share of population. The fitted line is the vote-weighted education-only model. Hover for county detail.
3,103 counties. Fitted line: vote-weighted least squares of shift on BA share (slope +1.3 pp per +10 pp BA). Counties below the line shifted right of their education prediction; the deepest outliers are nearly all high-Hispanic counties.
The shift, sliced by Hispanic share
Vote-weighted mean 2016→24 margin shift by county Hispanic population share.
Counties grouped by 2024-vintage ACS Hispanic share. Negative = toward Republicans. The majority-Hispanic group spans 106 counties casting 7.0 million two-party votes in 2024.