Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, women vs. men, CES 2008–2024. Whiskers show ±1 standard error. Toggle groups; race panels cover voters 18–29.
WomenMenLabel = gap (women − men)
Under-30 men and women voted essentially identically in 2008 (gap −0.6pp) and 2012 (+0.3pp). The gap opened in 2016 (+4.4pp), narrowed in 2020 (+3.1pp), and hit +6.5pp in 2024. Switch to the 30+ panel and the pattern inverts: older voters' gender gap was +9.1pp in 2020 and shrank to +3.9pp in 2024. Cells with fewer than 50 respondents are suppressed.
2020 → 2024: a shared slide, at different speeds
Democratic two-party share among voters 18–29, by gender and race. Arrows run from 2020 to 2024; every arrow points left.
WomenMenHover for shares and sample sizes
Every under-30 group — both genders, every racial group large enough to measure — gave Democrats a smaller share in 2024 than in 2020. The steepest slides: young Asian men (82.3 → 53.5 percent, −28.8pp, on small samples of 132 and 97) and young Hispanic men (70.3 → 50.0, −20.3pp). Young Black women and men fell by similar amounts (−12.5 and −12.2pp).
The partisanship gap is shrinking, not exploding
Gender gap (women − men) in Democratic share of two-party identifiers, CES 2006–2024, even years.
18–2930 and over
The under-30 PID gender gap rose through the late 2010s to +8.5pp in 2020, then collapsed to +3.1pp in 2024 — below where it stood in 2006 (+9.5pp). Independents excluded; gap = female share Democratic minus male share.