Two religious gaps that swap places

Each line is a gap in the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, in percentage points. Denominational: Catholics minus Protestants. Devotional: rare attenders minus frequent attenders. Above zero favors Democrats.

Denominational gap (Catholic − Protestant) Devotional gap (rarely − often attends)

The takeaway: the gap that organized the religious vote at mid-century shrank to nothing; the gap that organizes it now roughly doubled. Devotion replaced denomination as the axis that matters.

The denominational gap averaged +21pp across 1960–1976 and +9pp across 2008–2020, reversing to −8pp in 2024 — the first time Protestants voted more Democratic than Catholics. The devotional gap ran +9pp in 1972–1976 and +22pp by 2008–2020. Attendance was first asked in 1972, so the devotional line begins there. The 2024 attendance point (open marker, dashed) is shown for continuity only: just 49% of 2024 respondents have a usable attendance value and regular attenders are over-represented, so it is not directly comparable. The vote-by-denomination series has no such problem. Source: ANES CDF, weighted; Catholic n 197–1,303/yr, Protestant n 413–2,457/yr.

Within every tradition, the pew divides the vote

Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote, by how often respondents attend services, plotted separately for each tradition. Units: percent voting Democratic. Attendance fielded from 1972.

Rarely attends Often attends

Catholics

Protestants

None / secular

The takeaway: the same wedge — rare attenders moving Democratic, frequent attenders moving Republican — opens inside Catholicism, inside Protestantism, and among the unaffiliated. Attendance, not affiliation, is now the master variable.

Open markers and dashed end-segments mark the 2024 attendance points, which are upward-biased (see note). Thin cells (the few devout “nones,” sparse early years) are dropped below an unweighted n of 40.

Shared 0–80% vertical scale. By 2008–2020 the rare-minus-frequent gap averaged +9pp among Catholics, +16pp among Protestants, and +29pp among the unaffiliated. Source: ANES CDF, weighted.