A disposition that didn't predict party now nearly does

Weighted correlation between the authoritarianism scale (1 = all four answers on the obedience pole) and seven-point party identification, by year. The lower line nets out education by residualizing both measures within college / non-college groups.

From near-zero to roughly +0.28 in three decades, steepening sharply after 2012. Controlling for education shrinks the climb but does not erase it.

Raw correlation Net of education Dem president Rep president
The two lines track closely — the disposition’s alignment with party is not merely a diploma effect in disguise. Raw correlation −0.04 (1992) to +0.28 (2024); net of education +0.00 to +0.24. Vertical axis is a correlation coefficient (unitless, −1 to +1). Source: ANES Cumulative File, weighted; n = 1,048–7,376 per survey year.

Authoritarianism climbs from worst to first

Strength of each predictor’s association with a Republican presidential vote, by decade. Bars show the absolute weighted correlation; longer is a stronger predictor. Education and income turn negative in the 2010s–2020s (their bars show magnitude, with the sign noted).

A child-rearing disposition out-predicts income, education, and — by 2024 — race for how Americans cast a presidential ballot.

Absolute weighted correlation with the Republican presidential vote. Authoritarianism: 0.08 (1990s) to 0.32 (2020s). Vertical axis is a correlation magnitude (unitless). Source: ANES Cumulative File, weighted; n = 2,774–10,182 voters per decade.