Two different maps of the embattled donor

Left: among red counties, the share of reliable donors who lean left (stranded liberals). Right: among blue counties, the share who lean right (stranded conservatives). Counties not of the relevant color are faded.

Stranded liberals · left donors in red counties

Southern and rural red counties hold pockets of left-leaning donors.

Stranded conservatives · right donors in blue counties

Blue coastal and big-city counties hold pockets of right-leaning donors.

County color is the 2020 two-party presidential margin (a single stable color per county); the donor-level classification uses each donor’s lagged prior-presidential margin. Counties with fewer than 25 reliable donors are suppressed. Donor lean = sign of CFscore, excluding a near-zero moderate band. Source: DIME v4.0 × county presidential returns; counties shown.

Cross-pressured vs. aligned, within each lean

Median career giving (real 2024 dollars) per reliable donor, with 95% confidence intervals. Within each lean, cross-pressured (stranded) vs. locally aligned.

Takeaway: the dots cross. On the right the stranded dot sits to the right of aligned (more money); on the left it sits to the left (less).

Median is reported because giving is heavy-tailed; confidence intervals are distribution-free (order-statistic, large-sample). Source: DIME v4.0.

The asymmetry holds across thresholds and eras

Ratio of cross-pressured to aligned median giving, within lean, under a 5pp and 10pp county-margin cutoff and split by donor activity era. A ratio above 1 means the stranded give more.

Takeaway: in every cut, the right ratio sits above parity and the left ratio below it — the sign is stable.

Each cut recomputes the within-lean median ratio. Source: DIME v4.0 × county returns.