Rent vs. own

Home prices and rents both rose sharply after 2020, but on very different schedules.

Home prices move like an asset. By the Case-Shiller national index they rose 20.7% in the year to March 2022, then briefly fell year-over-year in 2023, and are now growing about 1.5% a year.

The rent line peaks a full year later, at 8.8% in March 2023, and never turns negative. That delay is partly how rent is measured: the CPI tracks rent across all existing leases, and leases reset only when they renew. Market rents turned first; the official measure followed as leases rolled over.

Since February 2020, home prices are up 53.8% and rent 32.5%. Owners who bought before the run-up gained the most, and renters face steady increases that almost never reverse.