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Groceries vs. restaurants

Grocery inflation hit 13.6% in 2022, then cooled. Restaurant prices never stopped climbing.

DATA: FRED · 2 SERIES · THROUGH 2026-07

Food inflation hit the grocery store first and hardest. Prices for food at home rose 13.6% in the year to August 2022, the fastest pace in more than four decades, as costs for fuel, fertilizer, feed and packaging surged at once.

LATEST · JUL 2026GROCERIES+2.6%DINING OUT+3.4%% CHG VS. YEAR AGO
SOURCE: FRED · CUSR0000SAF11, CUSR0000SEFV

Restaurant prices never rose as fast; eating out peaked at 8.8% in March 2023. But they didn't cool off the same way either.

Groceries are mostly goods whose prices follow commodities, and when commodity prices eased, grocery inflation dropped quickly. A restaurant meal is mostly labor and rent, and those costs don't reverse. Wages that rise stay risen.

The result: since February 2020, grocery prices are up 31.5% and restaurant prices 37.0%. In July 2026 eating out was still inflating faster, at 3.4% versus 2.6% for groceries.

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data
  • CUSR0000SAF11 · Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food at Home in U.S. City Average
  • CUSR0000SEFV · Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food Away from Home in U.S. City Average
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