Groceries vs. restaurants
Grocery inflation hit 13.6% in 2022, then cooled. Restaurant prices never stopped climbing.
Food inflation hit the grocery store first and hardest. Prices for food at home rose 13.6% in the year to August 2022, the fastest pace in more than four decades, as costs for fuel, fertilizer, feed and packaging surged at once.
Restaurant prices never rose as fast; eating out peaked at 8.8% in March 2023. But they didn't cool off the same way either.
Groceries are mostly goods whose prices follow commodities, and when commodity prices eased, grocery inflation dropped quickly. A restaurant meal is mostly labor and rent, and those costs don't reverse. Wages that rise stay risen.
The result: since February 2020, grocery prices are up 31.5% and restaurant prices 37.0%. In July 2026 eating out was still inflating faster, at 3.4% versus 2.6% for groceries.
- CUSR0000SAF11 · Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food at Home in U.S. City Average
- CUSR0000SEFV · Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food Away from Home in U.S. City Average